Maybe It's Not So Random...

How many times have you said that something is “so random”? How many times is that something really random? If you think about it, we throw the term around all the time, but never really think about what it entails. Radio Lab DJs Jad and Robert explore the wonder of randomness in an episode called Stochasticity. Stochasticity is, as they put it, "a wonderfully slippery and smarty-pants word for randomness."

Now, imagine you live in Northern England, and you send out a balloon with a message saying, “Please return to (your name).” What do you think the odds are of someone finding it and sending it back? Now, what are the odds of that person sharing your name? Age? Pet? This is what happened to Laura Buxton when she was ten years old. Jad and Robert caught wind of this story and had both Lauras on their show, where they were posed the question, “Do you believe in miracles?” One Laura answered, “I’d say it’s more fate than a miracle.” But how much of it is really fate? Jad and Robert embarked on a journey to find out.

Photo taken by: Paige Leyden

What if you sent not only one balloon, but a whole bunch?

What they found was both shocking and slightly disappointing. With the help of Deborah Nolan, a professor of Statistics at UC Berkeley, they found that when something is really random, it doesn’t seem random at all. They also learned from Jay Koehler, statistics and probability expert from the University of Texas, that the odds of something extraordinary, like winning the lottery, are not as slim as we think. He shared instances of people who had won the lottery multiple times.

All this makes me wonder, how many other things and events do we see in our everyday lives as random, but really have high chances of occurrence. If we knew about all these things, would we lose faith in fate? I would hope not. After all, Laura Buxton essentially met herself nearly ten years ago, and hasn’t lost faith. Even if the differences outweigh the similarities, sometimes it’s more comforting to turn away from statistics to know we aren’t alone. But the next time you call something random, just think: Is it really?